Category: USD

April 24, 2008

The Fair Value of The Euro

Filed under: EURO, General, JPY, USD - 24 Apr 2008

As a trader I think that Fair value for the Euro is 1.15/1.20!
We been under value at 0.82 on October, 2001, and now over value at 1.60. the balance line is 1.17.

That’s make the euro over value by 25% against the dollar. While the dollar at fair value against most asia ccys.

Asian currencies have been falling vs EUR with market focused on fall in USD past 6-9 months. While USD has fallen vs both G10, emerging market currencies, EUR has absorbed a very large part of USD decline. Since start of turmoil in July 2007, EUR has risen about 14%. Asian currencies have fallen on average about 10% vs EUR; even “strong” Asian performers like SGD, MYR, TWD, CNY have fallen more than 5% vs EUR on average, though fundamental backdrop for these currencies is stronger than that for EUR. Notes a fair few Asian currencies are managed; while officials are willing to tolerate more gains to combat inflation they “are still not allowing for fast and volatile moves.” Also, EUR often considered safe and very liquid proxy to trade USD decline story. If anything, EUR gains vs Asian FX have led to “more pronounced fundamental imbalances between Asia and Europe”; Asian currencies very undervalued vs EUR: By about 25% according to its valuation framework. Asia also has more favourable external position than Euroland with less reliance on trade to U.S. last few years. Inflation is on rise in Asia, triggering need for tighter monetary policy. Has long TWD vs basket of 50% EUR and 50%.
Goldman Sachs

February 28, 2008

4 Foreign Forex Terms (Helpfully Translated from from Fed-Speak into English

Filed under: General, Psychology, USD - 28 Feb 2008

4 Foreign Forex Terms (Helpfully Translated from “Fed-Speak” into English)

When Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, makes a statement on behalf of the Fed, it often seems as if he is speaking a foreign tongue. In fact, he learned this language at the knee of one of its creators, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. The cryptic prose employed by Greenspan throughout his extended reign over America`s central bank often perplexed the general public, and this style has been deftly mimicked by Mr. Bernanke during the initial phase of his period in office. As this style doesn`t seem to be going anywhere (and because Rosetta Stone hasn`t come out with a system to learn Fed-Speak yet), we must take the first steps towards understanding this idiom on our own. Here then are four commonly used and commonly misunderstood terms used by the Fed and their corresponding meanings, usefully translated into simple English.

1. “Unit Labor Costs”
Though this phrase might seem unfamiliar to most everyday investors, it is actually one of the more straightforward used by the Fed and is relatively uncopmlicated to parse. In simple terms, unit labor costs represent the labor costs required to produce a single output unit. This is by necessity a rather vague term, as neither the amount of output nor the type of good or service is specified. The term is not intended to be of much practical use, so anytime that the Fed employs it, you are better served to look at the conceptual argument that is being made. This phrase is most often employed when the Fed is addressing the issue of inflation, which is directly affected by labor costs.

2. “Aggregate Demand”
At its most basic level, monetary policy is essentially determined using an equation that contains only two variables: aggregate supply and aggregate demand. Again, this is a fairly conceptual term as it is unfeasible to quantify the aggregate demand of an entire economy. However, an examination of both sides of this equation in basic terms can provide insight into key economic indicators. Again, this term is often employed by the Fed when commenting on the rate of inflation. When aggregate demand increases relative to aggregate supply, prices inevitably rise. Therefore, escalation in aggregate demand can lead to accelerated inflation rates, while a decrease in aggregate demand can suppress inflation.

3. “Firming” or “Tightening”
Firming and tightening are simply affected terms employed by the Fed when they don`t want to use straightforward terminology to identify a hike in interest rates. When interest rates are high, both individual consumers and businesses are less apt to borrow money, which generally slows the economy. The opposite is true when rates are low. Therefore, the phrase “loose” money policy has come to be closely associated with low interest rate and a money policy described as “tight” is now basically synonymous with high interest rates.

4. “Resource Utilization”
Resource utilization is one of the most inherently esoteric phrase that you will ever hear employed by the Fed, but an examination of the terms reveals that the concept is actually rather simple and straightforward. The phrase refers to the literal utilization of capital and labor that are required to produce goods and services. The Fed prefers to see a bit of an excess in available inputs, meaning that the economy is not performing at full capacity. While this results in a certain amount of waste, it also alleviates pressure on prices. This is clearly at odds to how all but the most incompetent executives want to have their businesses run, which is as efficiently as possible. The Fed, however, tends to fret when factories are operating at or near full production and unemployment is low, maxing out resource utilization. When this occurs, the Fed frets, supply often becomes relatively low compared to demand, and skyrocketing prices ensue.

By-line:
Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com

May 16, 2007

May 2007 YEN biggest questions

Filed under: JPY, Paper Trades, USD - 16 May 2007

Actual questions starting from ~ May 3rd, 2007

Q:
When this usd/jpy will stop pimping above 120?
When eur/jpy and gbp/jpy will drop?

A:
When the LAST BRAVE SHORT GIVES UP!

April 26, 2007

Independent minded trader

Filed under: GBP, General, Psychology, USD - 26 Apr 2007

Independent minded trader

Independence of your mind is essential for trading success.
Why you have to be independent? If you`re not independent on your thoughts you`ll feel yourself uncomfortable without approval of your actions, support and confirmation or even disapproval from somebody else. Markets won`t always provide you with confirmation for your decisions. It is difficult to trade in the short term if you wait for confirmation and require a sense of certainty. If you wait for a classic chart pattern to materialize completely, for example, you may be too late. Staying ahead of the masses requires you to think independently. Let’s suppose that you wait for a head and shoulders pattern to develop. It may take some time, and, most of the cases you`ll be late - you may end up selling as everyone else is also trying to sell. There are times when it is vital to anticipate the crowd and try to stay ahead of them.
Today i started buying USD/GBP, got stopped, noticed today is a USD day, went short, closed the position on small profit for today, knowing this pair have 90% probability to hit 1.9912 today. Fear of a trending up of the price won a battle to my independent mind. Fear + the point to not overtrade + something else.
I`m not sad as long as:
1. Good stop placed for first position (USD/GBP long).
2. Without any doubts shorted this pair later according to the plan.
3. Market followed its way and i was there.
4. Closed second position on good profit for today.
5. The price dropped 90 pips more without me, again i`m not sad here ;-).

Conclusion: Independent mind + good entries (long and then short) - fear - patience.

February 20, 2007

make money in the “imperfections” of Forex moves

Filed under: EURO, GBP, General, USD - 20 Feb 2007

If supposed that a trader open pair positions in multiple currencies, long and short in direct currencies and long and long or short and short in indirect currencies: for example USD/CHF long and EURO/USD long at the same time and same lot size.
The Sum of the P/L of these two positions changes and when the total Sum of these two pairs reach to a specific profit, trader closes both positions at the same time. So in this strategy positions are always in hedge condition and have very low risk than other cases.
Why? Simply because correlation is important and they do not move in tandem accurately 100% of the time. And you can make money in these imperfections
Yes you could miss great opportunities to make a lot of money, but more important is that you will be stopped out less often.
Capital preservation is primordial and more important it all depends of your attitude towards risk.
It is not perfect but it works as long as you plan your trade and trade your plan.
I`ve tried this with EUR/USD and GBP/USD also with EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF daily trend as a base indicators.
This strategy worked 60% for me. Another 20% with ~0 profit, based on the SL/TP ratio (usually stop loses are far lower than take profits, but GBP moves have a higher amplitude. If one trade is wrong then SL is hit and that trade stopped, while the another trade is going its way until take profit is hit or trade is closed in advantage area).
20% of trades are unprofitable and want to say here that these 20% of loser will “eat” ~45% of earnings in total.
Statistics of this study:
Trades: 18 (*2) = 36
Time frame: 3 months.
Winners 11 (*2) trades. 11 wins, 11 loses. But the final result for every pair is a win.
50/50 7 trades.
7 losers, both pairs. All seven times first was hit one “stop loss”, then market turns back and hits another stop lose.
All stop loses were at 35-40 pips, TPs at 70-110 pips.

Advantage - ~2.5%/month of capital without stress.
Disadvantage - very long time frame, and low(?) level of earnings.