Archive for: June 2008

June 30, 2008

Will or will not ECB raise rate?

Filed under: Psychology - 30 Jun 2008

Will or will not ECB raise rate?
The answer is not as importnat as it seems…
What a trader would like to know, is NOT if the ECB gang will or will not raise rate…

What a trader would like to know is:

which wines will they drinking during the meeting, following PAR ideas and comments.
will there be any girls at the meeting for massage, because we know that these meeting can be “hard”, pardon the pun, and tense and temper can fly
what is on the menu for the meeting? Simple ham and egg sandwiches? Paella?
Anyone knows why the BoE is not announcing this week ahead of the ECB? Is it for cricket reason?

Anyway, whatever they decide, be prepared!!!
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!!
Wouldn’t it be conflicting if the ECB raised rates and at the same would be ready to intervent in the FOREX market?
But then again a trader is a a simple mortal, so what do he know ….!

June 26, 2008

A safe way to enter a trade

Filed under: General, Paper Trades - 26 Jun 2008

After identifying the trend up or down, a safe way to enter a trade is to wait for the first horizontal continuation pattern of five minutes or more and simply do a stop order above it, if going long, or below it, if going short. Then set your initial stop loss at one and a half to twice the width of the pattern on the side opposite your order.

Livermore in “Reminiscences…” once said something like that: “admitting that I was wrong with my long automatically meant that I had a reason to short”. Maybe not exactly that (don’t remember exactly and lazy to search for an exact quote in a book ) but you got the idea.

P.S. Don’t open your full position initially.

June 3, 2008

Thought about Cad/Jpy for today

Filed under: General, Paper Trades - 03 Jun 2008

Cad/Jpy does look like a short term sell around 104.50-70 areas.
It should find support arnd 103.40-50 areas …if this region is penetrated well we can see a move to 102.45-50 areas. Meantime these resistance (102.45-50) should eventually hold.

June 2, 2008

Trading with Post Traumatic Disorder Self-Test

Filed under: General, Psychology - 02 Jun 2008

If you suspect that you may suffer in your trading style from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), complete the self-test form, by printing the text out. Simply circle either yes or no in answer to the questions. Once completed, show the results to your Doctor.

Post Traumatic Disorder Self-Test

Yes No Have you experienced or witnessed a life-threatening event that caused intense fear, helplessness or horror?
Do you re-experience the event in at least one of the following ways?
Yes No Repeated, distressing memories and/or dreams?
Yes No Acting or feeling as if the event was happening again? (flashbacks or re-living it).
Yes No Intense physical and/or emotional distress when you are exposed to things that remind you of the event?
Yes No Do you avoid reminders of the event and feel numb, compared to the way you felt before?
Yes No Do you avoid thoughts, feelings and conversations about the event?
Yes No Do you avoid activities, places or people who remind you of it?
Yes No Have you blanked on parts of the detail?
Yes No Are you losing interest in significant activities in your life?
Yes No Are you feeling detached from other people?
Yes No Do you feel as if your range of emotions is restricted?
Yes No Do you feel as if your future is diminished in terms of marriage, children or a normal life span?

Are you troubled by two or more of the following:
Yes No Problems sleeping?
Yes No Irritability or outbursts of anger?
Yes No Problems concentrating?
Yes No Feeling ‘on-guard’?
Yes No An exaggerated startle response?

Having more than one illness at the same time can make it difficult to diagnose and treat the different conditions. Illness that sometimes complicate an anxiety disorder include depression and substance abuse. With this in mind, please take a moment to answer the following:

Yes No Have you experienced changes in sleeping or eating habits?

More days than not, do you feel:
Yes No Sad or Depressed?
Yes No Disinterested in life?
Yes No Worthless or guilty?

During the last year, has the use of alcohol or drugs:
Yes No Resulted in your failure to fulfill responsibilities with work, school or family?
Yes No Placed you in a dangerous situation, such as driving a car under the influence?
Yes No Been responsible for you being arrested?
Yes No Continued despite causing problems for you and your loved ones?

Reference: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Washington DC, American Psychiatric Association.

Also i feel that traders should look into the nutritional deficiencies in the industrialized world along with whatever else they are doing for their PTSD. Omega oils, hyaluronic acid, collagen, phosphatydlyserine are largely gone from the diet and they are all brain nutrients. Load up on those, you will notice differences in just days and over a few months you will be a lot better off. The PTSD thing is way magnified if your brain is not healthy IMO.