Archive for: April 2008

As a trader I think that Fair value for the Euro is 1.15/1.20!
We been under value at 0.82 on October, 2001, and now over value at 1.60. the balance line is 1.17.

That’s make the euro over value by 25% against the dollar. While the dollar at fair value against most asia ccys.

Asian currencies have been falling vs EUR with market focused on fall in USD past 6-9 months. While USD has fallen vs both G10, emerging market currencies, EUR has absorbed a very large part of USD decline. Since start of turmoil in July 2007, EUR has risen about 14%. Asian currencies have fallen on average about 10% vs EUR; even “strong” Asian performers like SGD, MYR, TWD, CNY have fallen more than 5% vs EUR on average, though fundamental backdrop for these currencies is stronger than that for EUR. Notes a fair few Asian currencies are managed; while officials are willing to tolerate more gains to combat inflation they “are still not allowing for fast and volatile moves.” Also, EUR often considered safe and very liquid proxy to trade USD decline story. If anything, EUR gains vs Asian FX have led to “more pronounced fundamental imbalances between Asia and Europe”; Asian currencies very undervalued vs EUR: By about 25% according to its valuation framework. Asia also has more favourable external position than Euroland with less reliance on trade to U.S. last few years. Inflation is on rise in Asia, triggering need for tighter monetary policy. Has long TWD vs basket of 50% EUR and 50%.
Goldman Sachs

Whether you are just starting out or have recently experienced a major loss, Forex trading fears can strike the best of us. While it is healthy to reserve some caution when making any kind of investment, true fear can cause you to pass up some lucrative moneymaking opportunities. Below are five ways to overcome your fright and become a zen-like Forex master.

Don’t Stop Trading
The best way to fight your fears is to face them and investing is no different. The longer you wait before you trade again, the harder it is to get back in the saddle.

Start Small
If you are hesitant about risking your money on a big trade, then you need to take baby steps. Trade small in micro lots until you feel a little more comfortable, and then move onto larger investments.

Always Trade With a Stop.
This is practical advice and will keep you from losing any more than you are comfortable with. Granted, no one wants to lose any money, but you can set your daily limit with a stop.

Back Up Every Move With Research
You should be trading with a strategy rather than using your emotions to make decisions. Although sticking to a strategy may not guarantee you money, it will increase your odds of earning a profit and restore your confidence.

Accept the Inevitability of Loss
Whether you are trading as a hobby or a profession, you will eventually lose money. Nothing is certain in the Forex market and there aren\’t any secrets to exploit for your advantage. Therefore, you need to accept the fact that every winning streak will come to an end.

Unless you adopt a more stoic approach to your trading, you will be wrought with anxiety. If Forex trading is truly that agonizing for you, even after heeding the above advice, then perhaps it is time to find a new way to invest your money. However, most bouts of Forex fear are temporary and due to inexperience or a recent loss. By staying diligent and sensible with your trades, you should be back to a healthy state of mind in no time.

By-line:
Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com